Rewarding Black Swans

Consider this, a bank can only safely loan before it soon runs out of credible borrowers who are willing to service their debt. Fortunately, for bankers, this is the age where commitment to quarterly increases in share prices holds paramount over ethics and preservation of capital. In other words, bankers can turn to creative measures like continual and sophisticated rebundling of debt via credit default swaps and/or lending to borrowers with little or no credit worthiness. Armed with such an arsenal and newfound priorities, a globalised world with interlinked financial markets is the ideal playground to play for maximum returns.

Regardless of the color of our parachutes, we should all be Bankers when we grow up. Why? Never has one profession held the entire world at ransom while amassing great wealth for all its member (ok, maybe just for the upper ranks). Banking has become a profession whereby you are not held accountable for results and given a free rein to exploit the system to the hilt.

What the bankers didn't expect was for the world to come crumbling down. They doubt property prices will ever fall. But household prices fell as the property bubble burst. In an instance, nobody trust anybody and resulted in a global credit crunch. Carry trades crumble overnight. Commodities prices and currencies tanked. Yen surged as investors flee for safe harbor.

Though the dust has yet to settle and markets show little signs of bottoming out, bankers are still congratulating themselves for a job well done. They argued that hindsight is always 20-20 but they could not have been held accountable for such a collapse. Instead they are only responsible for their actions based on what they know when they made their decisions. Hence they have executed their duties to the very best of their abilities and should be rewarded handsomely. In fact, if they were not rewarded well, they will have to leave for greener pastures.
While much has been said about such compensation packages, Nassim Nicholas Taleb summed it up very well in his Financial Times article entitled "How bank bonuses let us all down".

"The incentive system put in place by financial companies has produced the worse possible economic system mankind can imagine: capitalism for the profits and socialism for the losses." Taleb wrote. (Bold by me)

He left this parting advice "No incentive without disincentive. And never trust with your money anyone making a potential bonus."

BookExpo America, Los Angeles 2008 [Update 7 (Final)]

There were a total of 12 workshops and seminars on the subject of graphic novels. The state of comics has evolved. Its no longer whether libraries need to stock comics but which comics to stock and how many. Saturday was officially dubbed “Graphic Novel Day.”

Diversity. From attempts to lure in both younger (pre-teen) and older (post-teen and beyond) readers, to changing the formats in which manga is delivered, the industry as a whole is looking to maintain the strong readership that has driven years of rapid growth in the book market. John Cunningham, Diamond Comics Vice President of Sales said he found that in 2006, 11% of all trade paperback sales in the U.S. were graphic novels. “But you can bet that graphic novels were not 11% of the books shelved in most bookstores,” he said, citing the problem of getting more inventory into a dwindling amount of retail shelf space.

Iron Man. The first film released in 2008 to pass the $300 million mark at the domestic US box office. Marvel capitalised on the success and launched a new ongoing series called Invincible Iron Man, by writer Matt Fraction, and a new miniseries Iron Man: Viva Las Vegas by movie director Jon Favreau. Even though the film was rated PG-13 (for some intense sequences of sci-fi action and violence, and brief suggestive content) , the comics remain unrated even when they should be Rated R for intense and graphical violence.

Library Classification. Libraries, presently, tend to shelve all the comics together or by age. However it is important to realize the relevance of context.

Publisher Tokyopop (www.tokypop.com/ratings) has established an in-house committee of three. They are tasked to look through their content armed with content indicators to highlight themes of concern, for readers especially parents.
Themes of concern include, language, bullying, violence (intensity and goreness), sex (sexual and non sexual nudity) to substance abuse. There is a general public acceptance of violence and intolerance of sex. Marvel Carnage series are a prime example of bad storylines but popular among kids for its violence. Hence rating systems must be belivable and reliable to work.

BookExpo America, Los Angeles 2008 [Update 6]

How Libraries Buy: Librarians Reveal Their Methods for Collection Development
[Moderator: Nora Rawlinson - Founder, EarlyWord.com, the Publisher/Librarian Connection]

Librarians need to recognize the goals of selection like patron satisfaction. The library system should be able to generate shelf list report to allow close examination of the collection. Staff can then use weeding to fine tune the collection accordingly. Likewise reader recommendations should be reflected in circulation statistics.

SF public libraries (28 branches) & Phoenix City public libraries (16 branches) use the following standards to generate purchase orders; 3 holds for books, 6 holds for media and 10 holds for all other materials.

Circulation. Fiction and audio books continue to attract the highest circulation especially among the commuting adults and seniors. Newspaper databases, however, are not as popular due to their online presence. Online resources like electronic databases remain the best in the provision of 24/7 services and to support an otherwise small print reference collection.

Selection Aids. The panel agrees that a wide array is needed to build any collection, namely,

• International book fairs which showcase different kinds of materials;
• Promote vendor rapport with publishers to establish comprehensiveness so as to allow anticipatory selection before media review. This will further allow selectors to focus on finding independent and new publishers. Librarians must realize that small authors are challenged by distributorship structure and thus need to prove themselves with both circulation and media coverage.
• Tender. Even though awarded, the tender serves as a first stop service point. If the title is not available then selectors should go elsewhere to source for it. Bestsellers only account for 5% of total sales in America. Hence other material can and do matter.

BookExpo America, Los Angeles 2008 [Update 5]

How Travel Guide Publishers Continue to Connect with Travelers -- in Print, Online, and Mobile Platforms
[Moderator: Ensley Eikenburg - Assoc. Dir. Marketing, Frommer's Panelist: David Lytle, Frommers.com; Sarah Winter; Whatsonwhen.com; Tim Jarrell, Fodor's Speaker: Brice Gosnell, Lonely Planet]

The world is becoming ever more accessible with globalisation and greater information flow. The paradox is traveling has become less exotic. The key for content providers is how to continue creating personalized itineraries to make the journey more relevant and hence more exciting.

The new battle is waged between the incorporation of both print and online content. Publishers are honing their websites to target specific interests like elderly and religious. Online content feature travel lists and recommended itineraries while guides books provide in depth information for detailed planning exercises. User generated content via travel forums further enhances available guides with valuable ground experience.

However the common misconception is to assume that electronic content is automatically up to date and by default, the best guide. Online information suffers the same fate as printed guides, they are only as timely as the moment they are published.

Crystal Ball Gazing
The panel introduced the ability to access content via their phones. The development of Web 3.0 will not only allow users the portability of profiles but also dial up the location of recommended restaurants, hotels and places of interest within their vicinity. The panel realized that they must be ready even though consumers have yet to adopt the new technologies. The key is to continue to develop strategies and content even though the final editorial model has yet to be established.

BookExpo America, Los Angeles 2008 [Update 4]

The Future of Reading
[Moderator: Christopher Kenneally –Dir., Author & Creator Relationships, Copyright Clearance Ctr. Panelist: Paul Dry - Publisher, Paul Dry Books; Irene McDermott - - librarian and author, The Librarian's Internet Survival Guide; Randy Testa - VP Education, Walden Pond Press]

“It doesn’t matter how good or bad the product is, the fact is that people don’t read anymore,” he said. “Forty percent of the people in the U.S. read one book or less last year. The whole conception is flawed at the top because people don’t read anymore.” – Steve Jobs, New York Times, January 15, 2008

The above statement made by Steve Jobs, a leading visionary in media and music, formed the background for the panel discussion.

Kenneally stressed that The future will always be an unknown, even for gurus like Jobs. Kenneally is assured that we will continue to read to nourish our minds just as we will continue to eat to nourish our stomachs. Hence just as there are different kinds of food (from junk to fine cuisine) to cater to different eaters, there is an equally wide range of reading materials available for different readers. The need, however, is to recognize and know the purpose of one’s reading.

The Greatest Allies
The panel concluded that for reading to have a future, there must be future readers.

• There is a need to create awareness as readers need to know of the reading choices available;
• Authors want to be read and more collaborative relationships should be established to help the creative build readership; and
• Parents are always grateful for any initiatives to introduce or bring their kids back to reading and hence are the greatest allies available.
  

BookExpo America, Los Angeles 2008 [Update 3]

Upfront & Unscripted Spotlight: Jeff Bezos, CEO, Amazon.com with Chris Anderson, Exec Editor, Wired and author, The Long Tail


This was Jeff Bezos' return to BEA after 8 years. First off I was disappointed that Chris took a very back seat throughout and didnt contribute to the discussion. To set the context, the biggest buzz surrounding Book Expo was

1) Borders to cut $120 million in operating costs and

2) the hype for Scott McCellan’s soldout book, What Happened.

Bezos capitalised on the second event to emphasis why e-book is the future reading format of choice. He stressed that

• E-books don’t go out of stock


• Readers love to read.


• Anything that makes reading easier is appreciated.
  

Bezos went on to share his vision for the Kindle reader, i.e., to make every book ever printed in any language available for download in 60 seconds. He revealed that Kindle customers purchase more books by a factor of 2.6 than non-Kindle owners. In June 2008, there are 125,000 Kindle titles available, Kindle sales represent 6% of sales of those same physical books. In July 2008, just one month later, Kindle sales make up over 12% of sales for 130,000 titles.


Presently Amazon is working on developing a Kindle edition for international markets. Chris Anderson asked if the Kindle will change the way people write, Bezos said he would be “startled” if some authors don’t resort to Charles Dickens–type serializations. The Kindle platform has been designed to allow writers to surprise readers. In other words, Bezos is on the impression that the Kindle will function like the extremely popular and profitable mobile phone serializations phenomenon in Japan. Beyond books, Bezos sees downloads to extend to blogs, newspapers, magazines and emails.


Bezos shared that Amazon’s new BookSurge subsidiary will focus on Print-on-demand (POD). Printing POD titles in-house, according to Bezos, makes it easier and cheaper to combine orders in one package, saving time and money for customers. He likened the POD controversy to the one that developed when the company first started selling used books. Amazon studies have shown little cannibalization of new books by selling used titles.


In conclusion, Bezos reiterated the importance of patience and being relentless.

“To achieve, it is necessary for vision to exist and pursue each step ferociously.”

BookExpo America, Los Angeles 2008 [Update 2]

Green Is the New Red, White and Blue
Keynote Speaker: Thomas L. Friedman

Friedman is a Pulitzer winner and author of best sellers like The World is Flat and Lexus and the Olive Tree. The New York Times journalist who has been the strongest supporter of globalisation and its merits gave an arousing speech on his new book and the urgency for a green revolution.

The premise of his new book, Hot, Flat and Crowded: Why We Need A Green Revolution – and how it can renew America, (to be published in Sep’08) is that the country has lost its way in the global arena largely because of bad environmental habits.

“Our challenge is to be innovative in the way we take up the environmental cause." Friedman said, "This is the only way we can make America stronger.” He proposed that the U.S. implement a “Code Green” policy as a means of beginning the process of overhauling its energy policies. Friedman goes on to identify the mega-trends facing the world today as energy poverty, climate change, “petro-dictatorship” and biodiversity loss.

Going Green was the indeed the hot topic of Book Expo with 7 dedicated seminars and workshops. Publishers gave out Recycle bags instead of plastic bags. The media played its part as well due to the rising fuel prices and the great returns from investing in alternative and biofuels.

BookExpo America, Los Angeles 2008 [Update 1]

The BookExpo was held at the Los Angeles Convention Center from May 29 – June 01, 2008. It is the largest publishing event in North America and the second largest book fair in the world. There were over 2,000 exhibitors with a total registration of 28,494. This was a 22% decline from the 36,112 registrants from New York in 2007. BEA Spokesperson Roger Bilheimer said the decline was due almost entirely to a drop-off in librarian attendance which was down by about 2,000. Roger remarked that the cost of travel and the fact ALA will be held in California in less than a month deter librarians from attending.

“It’s a fair fair,” one publisher said. “that’s what you get when you come to California.” Indeed, Los Angeles is home to Hollywood after all and the fair was graced by celebrities like Brooke Shields, Magic Johnson, Jackie Collins with her big pink bus, Salman Rushdie and even Malaysia's Fengshui Diva Lilian Too showed up.

The recurrent themes from the various seminars and conferences held at the BookExpo are as follows:

1. How to make our collections more valuable? and
2. How to enhance customer experience?